So Why is Ohio State Number 1?
When i ran the formula for the HWFC Computer poll after this week's games, my first thought is something has to be totally wrong here. Rutgers ended up ahead of Ohio State. There's nothing I can do on this computer to sway someone one way over the other, it's all based on the strength of the teams beaten.
So, I took a look. Rutgers on the average actually has the stronger schedule to date.
Let that sink in for a minute. Because I'm sure you don't believe that.
Perception and reality are two very different things. The perception is that Ohio State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers. The perception is that the Big 10 is a tougher conference than the Big East. Now i'm not sure i'd make the leap that the Big East is tougher, but it's not so far fetched as you might think. By all accounts, Rutgers' Big East schedule so far has been tougher than Ohio State's Big 10 schedule. Five Big 10 teams sit in the bottom half of Division 1A teams, Ohio State had all 5 on their schedule.
So why is Ohio State number 1 and not Michigan? Michigan has had a tougher Big 10 schedule (having had to play Wisconsin) and maybe even a slightly tougher out of conference schedule. This year, it doesn't matter that much, because Michigan and Ohio State at least get to play each other and settle it on the field.
But this is why I have a problem with the people who want to just keep it all up to the polls, because this all points out a huge flaw in the polls. If Ohio State's and Rutgers' schedules were reversed, Ohio State would still be number one and Rutgers would still be #7 or lower and people would still point to Rutgers' schedule, while they don't pay attention to Ohio State's. Just like it is now.
And this points out the flaws. Ohio State is number one and Rutgers is number 7 in the most recent polls for two reasons: Ohio State started out #1 or #2. Rutgers was nowhere to be found even in the receiving votes when the season started. The polls are as much as anything about where you started the year as they are about how good you are. The other reason is, Ohio State is Ohio State and Rutgers is, well... Rutgers. And as long as those are the realities of the polls, the polls should not be the sole determining factor of who plays for the national championship.
As long as name and where you started the season have more to do with where you are now, the system is flawed. Pure and simple.
So, I took a look. Rutgers on the average actually has the stronger schedule to date.
Let that sink in for a minute. Because I'm sure you don't believe that.
Perception and reality are two very different things. The perception is that Ohio State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers. The perception is that the Big 10 is a tougher conference than the Big East. Now i'm not sure i'd make the leap that the Big East is tougher, but it's not so far fetched as you might think. By all accounts, Rutgers' Big East schedule so far has been tougher than Ohio State's Big 10 schedule. Five Big 10 teams sit in the bottom half of Division 1A teams, Ohio State had all 5 on their schedule.
So why is Ohio State number 1 and not Michigan? Michigan has had a tougher Big 10 schedule (having had to play Wisconsin) and maybe even a slightly tougher out of conference schedule. This year, it doesn't matter that much, because Michigan and Ohio State at least get to play each other and settle it on the field.
But this is why I have a problem with the people who want to just keep it all up to the polls, because this all points out a huge flaw in the polls. If Ohio State's and Rutgers' schedules were reversed, Ohio State would still be number one and Rutgers would still be #7 or lower and people would still point to Rutgers' schedule, while they don't pay attention to Ohio State's. Just like it is now.
And this points out the flaws. Ohio State is number one and Rutgers is number 7 in the most recent polls for two reasons: Ohio State started out #1 or #2. Rutgers was nowhere to be found even in the receiving votes when the season started. The polls are as much as anything about where you started the year as they are about how good you are. The other reason is, Ohio State is Ohio State and Rutgers is, well... Rutgers. And as long as those are the realities of the polls, the polls should not be the sole determining factor of who plays for the national championship.
As long as name and where you started the season have more to do with where you are now, the system is flawed. Pure and simple.
posted by Ron @ 3:27 PM
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2 Comments:
Unfortunately there is no perfect system. The luck of the draw for Ohio State was that they played the five lowest ranked teams in the big ten. However, this was not the case at the time they played them. If, as you point out, Rutgers did have a tougher schedule overall (although I dispute this) it would be marginal. The only solution to the problem of schedule strength would be the dissolution of conference play. Maybe all teams could be independent and try and optimize their schedule strength in case they might have a shot at a championship game. Of course this would never happen as the best teams would beat each other up and lesser unbeaten teams would end up playing for the national championship.
Basically the system is not perfect, nor can it be. You have to realize though that penalizing an unbeaten team for having a slightly lesser schedule (due to bad luck - at least OSU defeated the defending national champions in the preseason) is as unfair as Rutgers not being ranked higher.
You make some good points. Please understand I'm not advocating dropping Ohio State to 7th or anything like that.
However, moving Michigan or Rutgers ahead of Ohio State is not penalizing Ohio State for their schedule, as much as it's just ranking teams where they belong, if indeed they do belong. I don't know that I'd say that Rutgers belongs ahead of Ohio State, I'll admit I'd struggle with making that decision.
I'm glad you're disputing my statement about Rutgers having the stronger schedule. I'm always up for a good debate. However, have you looked into the schedules, objectively? Take a look at where each team is, and if Rutgers isn't ahead by now, they're very close.
By the end of the season, I'm not sure that will be the case. After all, Ohio State's toughest game is yet to come. While Rutgers still has to play West Virginia, they also have games against the 2 lowest ranked teams in the Big East, so when all's said and done, by year's end they may still have the weaker schedule. But I'm not sure it will be by much.
It's true that there's no perfect system. However I believe the BCS system is not all that far off because it does balance the computers against the polls. The computers miss some of the intangibles. The polls have some very obvious bias. I've stated this before, my opinion is that the closest thing to a perfect system would be a final four using the BCS formula or something close to it. It preserves the excellence of the regular season (something lost in basketball) and it avoids a problem like 2003.
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